The one-man coalition
The one-man coalition
By Christopher Grimes and Edward Luce
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: June 23 2007 03:00 | Last updated: June 23 2007 03:00
Most politicians view their party affiliation as something they will have for life, like their eye colour or an old tattoo. Not Michael Bloomberg. New York's mayor has had three party designations in the past six years, which must be some kind of record for a leading American politician. His latest switch came this week, when he ditched the Republican party to become "unaffiliated", a move that many believe was his first step toward a bid for the US presidency as an independent candidate.
There is precedent here: Mr Bloomberg began his campaign for mayor in 2001 by abandoning the Democratic party - he would have faced a crowded field for the nomination - to become a Republican. It was a shrewd move. After spending $75m (£38m) of his own money and a timely endorsement from Rudolph Giuliani, Mr Bloomberg defied conventional wisdom by being elected New York's 108th mayor.
Only someone with Mr Bloom-berg's wealth - his fortune is estimated as high as $13bn, thanks to the success of Bloomberg LP, the financial information group he founded - could flout the political parties the way he has. Throughout his brief political career his fortune has let him disregard the will of campaign donors - a message New Yorkers appear to be hearing: his approval rating has hovered around 70 per cent for nearly two years. Despite his almost technocratic style, Mr Bloomberg has impressed the electorate as manager of the once "ungovernable" city. Now halfway through his second (and final) term Mr Bloomberg is weighing whether his non-partisan, managerial message will play off Broadway.
Mr Bloomberg still insists that he "is not a candidate", often defusing that question with a deftly crafted piece of self mockery about his unlikely prospects: "I'm a white billionaire, Jewish, pro-choice, pro-gay rights, anti-gun and anti-Creationism. How do you phrase that? It is a new coalition - of five people."
But he and his aides have encouraged the speculation for over a year, which has raised Mr Bloomberg's national profile. Even if he decides not to run, his skill at drawing attention to his agenda has shown that Mr Bloomberg is no longer the political novice who came to City Hall in January 2002. "He's gotten tremendous at the political game," says Ed Koch, New York's mayor from 1978-1989. "I believe he is running and, while he is an underdog, I believe he can win."
Mr Bloomberg, born in 1942, grew up in a modest household in Medford, Massachusetts, the son of a book-keeper for a dairy company. He was an overachiever from the beginning, earning his Eagle Scout badge before entering Johns Hopkins University, where he was the first Jew admitted to his fraternity. While he was away at college, his father, William, died; his mother, Charlotte, went to work after years of being a housewife. (Bloomberg still calls his mother every morning.)
After a graduate degree from Harvard Business School, he went to work at Salomon Brothers in New York, where he quickly figured out how to have a good time as a single man on a Wall Street salary. He had "a girlfriend in every city, skied in every resort, ate in every four-star restaurant, and never missed a Broadway play," he wrote in his 1997 autobiography Bloomberg by Bloomberg. The fun ended briefly when he was forced out of the bank in 1981 with a $10m payoff, used to found Bloomberg LP. After business success came, Mr Bloomberg, who is amicably divorced with two grown daughters, relished the role of the single billionaire. (He now has a steady girlfriend, Diana Taylor, the former New York banking commissioner.) But despite his swinging image, friends say he never forgot his father's lessons about charity. "Long before he was mayor, I could always call Michael if I was raising money for some charitable cause," said Georgette Mosbacher, a Republican fundraiser and friend.
Discussing life after City Hall, Mr Bloomberg says he expects to devote his time to giving away his fortune. "The most likely scenario is that I will run the second or third-largest foundation in the world," he told the FT last year, focusing on "public health and education and the arts."
But some wonder whether he will be satisfied with a life of philanthropy and golf. "The foundation will be fabulous, but it's not full-time work," said one long-time friend. "The man has more energy than anybody you will ever meet in your life."
Does that mean he will run for president, something he mentioned he might do in his autobiography? Some friends say that even he does not know yet.
Most of the Washington cognoscenti have written off a potential candidacy as quixotic. The last time an independent candidate took a large chunk of the vote was in 1992, when the Texas billionaire Ross Perot shook up the contest between then-president George HW. Bush and challenger Bill Clinton. One Repub-lican consultant contends: "Bloomberg is a much stronger and saner figure than Perot."
Mr Bloomberg's prospects may be better than is assumed, says Charlie Cook, a veteran political analyst in Washington. Independent candidates fare best when the public's mood is worst. By almost every polling metric the public is in a state of high dissatisfaction with one recent poll showing three-quarters believe the country is on the wrong track. Disapproval ratings for Congress, and each of the national parties, are close to all-time highs.
Aides to Mr Bloomberg say he would only run if several conditions were met. He plans to wait until after the party primaries next January and February to assess whether the other nominees were sufficiently damaged to permit space for a third party bid. He would also require 70 per cent of Americans still to agree that the country was "on the wrong track". He is already positioning himself as the sage outsider to Washington, which he described last weekas "sinking into a swamp of dysfunction".
Finally, some analysts question whether he has the charisma to win a national campaign. "If Bloomberg lacks the personality then what do you say about Gore or Kerry?" says Mr Cook. "They got half and just under half of the national vote."
Mr Bloomberg is aware that independent candidates have not historically won elections - rather they generally help someone else lose. Friends speculate he would not run only to spoil the chances of someone he believes would make an effective president. Whatever he decides, he will play a role, either as a kingmaker or a man who thinks he has a shot at being king.
By Christopher Grimes and Edward Luce
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: June 23 2007 03:00 | Last updated: June 23 2007 03:00
Most politicians view their party affiliation as something they will have for life, like their eye colour or an old tattoo. Not Michael Bloomberg. New York's mayor has had three party designations in the past six years, which must be some kind of record for a leading American politician. His latest switch came this week, when he ditched the Republican party to become "unaffiliated", a move that many believe was his first step toward a bid for the US presidency as an independent candidate.
There is precedent here: Mr Bloomberg began his campaign for mayor in 2001 by abandoning the Democratic party - he would have faced a crowded field for the nomination - to become a Republican. It was a shrewd move. After spending $75m (£38m) of his own money and a timely endorsement from Rudolph Giuliani, Mr Bloomberg defied conventional wisdom by being elected New York's 108th mayor.
Only someone with Mr Bloom-berg's wealth - his fortune is estimated as high as $13bn, thanks to the success of Bloomberg LP, the financial information group he founded - could flout the political parties the way he has. Throughout his brief political career his fortune has let him disregard the will of campaign donors - a message New Yorkers appear to be hearing: his approval rating has hovered around 70 per cent for nearly two years. Despite his almost technocratic style, Mr Bloomberg has impressed the electorate as manager of the once "ungovernable" city. Now halfway through his second (and final) term Mr Bloomberg is weighing whether his non-partisan, managerial message will play off Broadway.
Mr Bloomberg still insists that he "is not a candidate", often defusing that question with a deftly crafted piece of self mockery about his unlikely prospects: "I'm a white billionaire, Jewish, pro-choice, pro-gay rights, anti-gun and anti-Creationism. How do you phrase that? It is a new coalition - of five people."
But he and his aides have encouraged the speculation for over a year, which has raised Mr Bloomberg's national profile. Even if he decides not to run, his skill at drawing attention to his agenda has shown that Mr Bloomberg is no longer the political novice who came to City Hall in January 2002. "He's gotten tremendous at the political game," says Ed Koch, New York's mayor from 1978-1989. "I believe he is running and, while he is an underdog, I believe he can win."
Mr Bloomberg, born in 1942, grew up in a modest household in Medford, Massachusetts, the son of a book-keeper for a dairy company. He was an overachiever from the beginning, earning his Eagle Scout badge before entering Johns Hopkins University, where he was the first Jew admitted to his fraternity. While he was away at college, his father, William, died; his mother, Charlotte, went to work after years of being a housewife. (Bloomberg still calls his mother every morning.)
After a graduate degree from Harvard Business School, he went to work at Salomon Brothers in New York, where he quickly figured out how to have a good time as a single man on a Wall Street salary. He had "a girlfriend in every city, skied in every resort, ate in every four-star restaurant, and never missed a Broadway play," he wrote in his 1997 autobiography Bloomberg by Bloomberg. The fun ended briefly when he was forced out of the bank in 1981 with a $10m payoff, used to found Bloomberg LP. After business success came, Mr Bloomberg, who is amicably divorced with two grown daughters, relished the role of the single billionaire. (He now has a steady girlfriend, Diana Taylor, the former New York banking commissioner.) But despite his swinging image, friends say he never forgot his father's lessons about charity. "Long before he was mayor, I could always call Michael if I was raising money for some charitable cause," said Georgette Mosbacher, a Republican fundraiser and friend.
Discussing life after City Hall, Mr Bloomberg says he expects to devote his time to giving away his fortune. "The most likely scenario is that I will run the second or third-largest foundation in the world," he told the FT last year, focusing on "public health and education and the arts."
But some wonder whether he will be satisfied with a life of philanthropy and golf. "The foundation will be fabulous, but it's not full-time work," said one long-time friend. "The man has more energy than anybody you will ever meet in your life."
Does that mean he will run for president, something he mentioned he might do in his autobiography? Some friends say that even he does not know yet.
Most of the Washington cognoscenti have written off a potential candidacy as quixotic. The last time an independent candidate took a large chunk of the vote was in 1992, when the Texas billionaire Ross Perot shook up the contest between then-president George HW. Bush and challenger Bill Clinton. One Repub-lican consultant contends: "Bloomberg is a much stronger and saner figure than Perot."
Mr Bloomberg's prospects may be better than is assumed, says Charlie Cook, a veteran political analyst in Washington. Independent candidates fare best when the public's mood is worst. By almost every polling metric the public is in a state of high dissatisfaction with one recent poll showing three-quarters believe the country is on the wrong track. Disapproval ratings for Congress, and each of the national parties, are close to all-time highs.
Aides to Mr Bloomberg say he would only run if several conditions were met. He plans to wait until after the party primaries next January and February to assess whether the other nominees were sufficiently damaged to permit space for a third party bid. He would also require 70 per cent of Americans still to agree that the country was "on the wrong track". He is already positioning himself as the sage outsider to Washington, which he described last weekas "sinking into a swamp of dysfunction".
Finally, some analysts question whether he has the charisma to win a national campaign. "If Bloomberg lacks the personality then what do you say about Gore or Kerry?" says Mr Cook. "They got half and just under half of the national vote."
Mr Bloomberg is aware that independent candidates have not historically won elections - rather they generally help someone else lose. Friends speculate he would not run only to spoil the chances of someone he believes would make an effective president. Whatever he decides, he will play a role, either as a kingmaker or a man who thinks he has a shot at being king.
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