Candidates wait for news of Bloomberg
Candidates wait for news of Bloomberg
By Christopher Grimes in New York and Andrew Ward in Washington
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: June 20 2007 22:47 | Last updated: June 21 2007 03:04
Michael Bloomberg’s decision on Tuesday to leave the Republican party will have sent a chill through the campaign headquarters of presidential candidates from both main US parties.
The announcement provided the strongest sign to date that the multi-billionaire mayor of New York is seriously considering a run for US president next year.
His entry, as a self-financed independent candidate, would add further uncertainty to a presidential race that is already considered the most open for more than half a century.
As a political moderate who left the Democratic party to run for mayor as a Republican in 2001, Mr Bloomberg could siphon support from both main candidates if he decides to run.
His vast wealth would also increase pressure on rivals to raise funds for what is already certain to be the most expensive presidential election in history. Mr Bloomberg’s entry could pit him against his predecessor as mayor if Rudy Giuliani, currently the leading Republican candidate, wins his party’s nomination.
Both occupy similar political territory, holding moderate views on social issues such as gun control and abortion, and have reputations as competent leaders.
A lifelong Democrat, he joined the Republican party in 2001 to run for New York mayor in place of Rudy Giuliani. As mayor, his hallmarks have been managerial expertise, balanced budgets and a relative social liberalism.
Without the burden of having to raise funds, Mr Bloomberg can afford to wait until early 2008 to enter the race formally. Friends who have spoken to him say his decision will be based on whether voter disillusionment with both parties continues to be strong, and if the front-runners in each party appear vulnerable.
Many political analysts say Mr Bloomberg has little chance of winning as an independent. The US system presents a number of challenges for third-party candidates, starting with the time-consuming process of getting on the ballot in all 50 states. Mr Bloomberg could be forced to go to court in some states to get on the ballot.
But Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, a polling firm, says Mr Bloomberg could win enough support to deny the main parties a clear victory. A recent Rasmussen poll found 27 per cent of US voters would be likely to support Mr Bloomberg.
“These numbers suggest that if Bloomberg can find a message that resonates, he might win some states and deny either major party candidates a majority in the Electoral College,” said Mr Rasmussen. In the absence of a clear majority, the constitution mandates the House of Representatives to choose the president – something that has not happened since the 19th century.
Matthew Towery, chairman of Insider Advantage, a polling firm, said there was an opportunity for an independent to exploit widespread disenchantment with the existing choice of candidates in 2008.
While Mr Bush’s approval rating is close to record lows, polls show public approval of the Democratic-controlled Congress is even lower – indicating danger for both parties from a candidate challenging their political duopoly.
“There are very serious people in Washington who feel the time is right for a third-party candidate,” said Mr Towery.
By Christopher Grimes in New York and Andrew Ward in Washington
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: June 20 2007 22:47 | Last updated: June 21 2007 03:04
Michael Bloomberg’s decision on Tuesday to leave the Republican party will have sent a chill through the campaign headquarters of presidential candidates from both main US parties.
The announcement provided the strongest sign to date that the multi-billionaire mayor of New York is seriously considering a run for US president next year.
His entry, as a self-financed independent candidate, would add further uncertainty to a presidential race that is already considered the most open for more than half a century.
As a political moderate who left the Democratic party to run for mayor as a Republican in 2001, Mr Bloomberg could siphon support from both main candidates if he decides to run.
His vast wealth would also increase pressure on rivals to raise funds for what is already certain to be the most expensive presidential election in history. Mr Bloomberg’s entry could pit him against his predecessor as mayor if Rudy Giuliani, currently the leading Republican candidate, wins his party’s nomination.
Both occupy similar political territory, holding moderate views on social issues such as gun control and abortion, and have reputations as competent leaders.
A lifelong Democrat, he joined the Republican party in 2001 to run for New York mayor in place of Rudy Giuliani. As mayor, his hallmarks have been managerial expertise, balanced budgets and a relative social liberalism.
Without the burden of having to raise funds, Mr Bloomberg can afford to wait until early 2008 to enter the race formally. Friends who have spoken to him say his decision will be based on whether voter disillusionment with both parties continues to be strong, and if the front-runners in each party appear vulnerable.
Many political analysts say Mr Bloomberg has little chance of winning as an independent. The US system presents a number of challenges for third-party candidates, starting with the time-consuming process of getting on the ballot in all 50 states. Mr Bloomberg could be forced to go to court in some states to get on the ballot.
But Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, a polling firm, says Mr Bloomberg could win enough support to deny the main parties a clear victory. A recent Rasmussen poll found 27 per cent of US voters would be likely to support Mr Bloomberg.
“These numbers suggest that if Bloomberg can find a message that resonates, he might win some states and deny either major party candidates a majority in the Electoral College,” said Mr Rasmussen. In the absence of a clear majority, the constitution mandates the House of Representatives to choose the president – something that has not happened since the 19th century.
Matthew Towery, chairman of Insider Advantage, a polling firm, said there was an opportunity for an independent to exploit widespread disenchantment with the existing choice of candidates in 2008.
While Mr Bush’s approval rating is close to record lows, polls show public approval of the Democratic-controlled Congress is even lower – indicating danger for both parties from a candidate challenging their political duopoly.
“There are very serious people in Washington who feel the time is right for a third-party candidate,” said Mr Towery.
posted by Carlos T Mock @ 10:50 AM
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