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Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Market turmoil hits US consumer confidence

Market turmoil hits US consumer confidence
By Daniel Pimlott in New York
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
Published: March 27 2007 16:32 | Last updated: March 27 2007 16:32


Consumer confidence fell in March, as higher oil prices and unsettling activity in the stock markets disturbed Americans’ hopes for their future economic health.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to a worse-than-expected level of 107.2 in March from 111.2 in February. Economists had predicted a reading of 108.5.

”Apprehension about the short-term future has suddenly cast a cloud over consumers’ confidence,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board’s consumer research. ”The recent turmoil in financial markets coupled with the run-up in gasoline prices may have contributed to consumers’ heightened sense of uncertainty and concern.”

Oil prices have risen recently helped by tensions between the west and Iran, while equities suffered a dramatic plunge earlier in the month, although they have since almost recovered.

The consumer data come at a tense moment for the economy, as concern has been growing that turmoil in subprime mortgages - the home loan market for people with weak credit histories - may spread to other areas of the economy. A series of housing indicators have also suggested that the housing market is in a worse state than many thought.

Home prices in 20 metropolitan areas fell by 0.2 per cent in January, their first drop in six years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index.

Business investment is at a low, while core inflation levels are above the Federal Reserve’s preferred upper limit.

“The index now stands only 3.8 points higher than in the first month of the recession of 2001, and we very much doubt that the full effect of the volatility in stock prices, the leap in gas prices and the problems in the mortgage market has yet hit the numbers,” said Ian Sheperdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics.

Consumers’ view of current state of the economy was slightly improved over the month, and confidence over the current availability of jobs was at a five and a half year high. However, Americans had heightened expectations of a worsening climate for business think the jobs situation will deteriorate, according to the index.

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