Republicans seek to sow seeds of doubt on security
Republicans seek to sow seeds of doubt on security
By Holly Yeager and Edward Luce in Washington
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: September 13 2006 19:15 | Last updated: September 13 2006 19:15
John Boehner, the Republican majority leader in the House of Representatives, may have given the game away this week when he said, “I wonder if they’re [the Democrats] more interested in protecting the terrorists than protecting the American people.”
America’s mid-term congressional elections, which take place on 7 November, are shaping up as one of the most bitter campaigns in recent US history. Although George W. Bush is not expected to play a prominent role on the campaign trail over the next seven weeks, the president has given a series of speeches in the past 10 days that have helped crystalise his party’s att empts to paint the Democrats as weak on national security.
In a broadcast interview last Sunday, Dick Cheney, the vice-president, was more blunt in suggesting a connection between Democratic criticism of the Iraq war and being soft on terrorism. “Suggestions, for example, that we should withdraw US forces from Iraq, simply feed into that whole notion [and] validate the strategy of the terrorists,” he said.
While viewed by many as below-the-belt, such pugilism could be a small foretaste of what is to come. Opinion polls suggest that the Democrats are on course to regain the House of Representatives in November for the first time since 1994, which could severely complicate life for Mr Bush in the two remaining years of his second term. The opposition needs to add just 15 seats to its tally in the 435-seat house to regain control. There is also an outside chance the Democrats could recapture the Senate, where 33 seats are being contested: they need to boost their seats by six.
“The national mood remains bleak for Republicans,” said Stuart Rothenberg, the publisher of the Rothenberg political report. “President George W. Bush’s job performance ratings are terrible and the public still gives Congress low marks. A majority of Americans continue to tell pollsters that the country is headed in the wrong direction.
“There is no reason to believe that things will change dramatically between now and election day to improve Republican prospects.”
However, it remains far from clear whether the Democrats can translate widespread voter dissatisfaction into significant gains on the ground. In addition to focusing on national security, the Republicans have sought to reduce the November elections to a series of local contests by focusing on the record of their incumbents or the perceived foibles of their opponents. Even stalwart Republican allies of Mr Bush have asked him to keep a low profile.
The Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to build a unified national campaign that will tap voter disaffection with Mr Bush.
“Essentially, the Republicans are trying to localise this election and the Democrats are trying to nationalise it,” said John Green, a political scientist at the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics in Ohio. “History suggests that the Democrats will find it an uphill struggle to turn 435 local races into a national wave.”
The Democrats, whose leadership is bitterly divided between Howard Dean, the former presidential hopeful and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, and party leaders in Congress over electoral strategy, also face tough questions on their continuing inability to produce coherent policies. That is particularly difficult over Iraq and the economy.
On the unpopular war in Iraq, the Democrats continue to be divided on whether and how quickly to recommend a US military withdrawal. And on the economy, where there is broad-based voter anxiety, the Dem ocratic platform amounts to little more than proposing an increase in the minimum wage, stuck at $5.15 (€4.05, £2.74) an hour since 1997, and a reversal of some of the tax cuts Mr Bush has pushed through in the past six years.
The opinion poll gap has begun to narrow sharply. Last month Gallup showed the Democrats’ lead over Republicans narrowing to just two percentage points, down from a 15-point lead in April. Although voters remain deeply dissatisfied with the performance of a Republican Congress, their views change when it comes to assessing their local representative.
In what is a frequent peculiarity of American politics, more than half of voters approve of their local representative while fewer than a quarter approve of Congress’s performance as a whole.
“The bottom line is that there is still everything to play for,” said Mr Green. “The national mood favours the Democrats. But winning the election is still going to prove very tough for them.”
By Holly Yeager and Edward Luce in Washington
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006
Published: September 13 2006 19:15 | Last updated: September 13 2006 19:15
John Boehner, the Republican majority leader in the House of Representatives, may have given the game away this week when he said, “I wonder if they’re [the Democrats] more interested in protecting the terrorists than protecting the American people.”
America’s mid-term congressional elections, which take place on 7 November, are shaping up as one of the most bitter campaigns in recent US history. Although George W. Bush is not expected to play a prominent role on the campaign trail over the next seven weeks, the president has given a series of speeches in the past 10 days that have helped crystalise his party’s att empts to paint the Democrats as weak on national security.
In a broadcast interview last Sunday, Dick Cheney, the vice-president, was more blunt in suggesting a connection between Democratic criticism of the Iraq war and being soft on terrorism. “Suggestions, for example, that we should withdraw US forces from Iraq, simply feed into that whole notion [and] validate the strategy of the terrorists,” he said.
While viewed by many as below-the-belt, such pugilism could be a small foretaste of what is to come. Opinion polls suggest that the Democrats are on course to regain the House of Representatives in November for the first time since 1994, which could severely complicate life for Mr Bush in the two remaining years of his second term. The opposition needs to add just 15 seats to its tally in the 435-seat house to regain control. There is also an outside chance the Democrats could recapture the Senate, where 33 seats are being contested: they need to boost their seats by six.
“The national mood remains bleak for Republicans,” said Stuart Rothenberg, the publisher of the Rothenberg political report. “President George W. Bush’s job performance ratings are terrible and the public still gives Congress low marks. A majority of Americans continue to tell pollsters that the country is headed in the wrong direction.
“There is no reason to believe that things will change dramatically between now and election day to improve Republican prospects.”
However, it remains far from clear whether the Democrats can translate widespread voter dissatisfaction into significant gains on the ground. In addition to focusing on national security, the Republicans have sought to reduce the November elections to a series of local contests by focusing on the record of their incumbents or the perceived foibles of their opponents. Even stalwart Republican allies of Mr Bush have asked him to keep a low profile.
The Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to build a unified national campaign that will tap voter disaffection with Mr Bush.
“Essentially, the Republicans are trying to localise this election and the Democrats are trying to nationalise it,” said John Green, a political scientist at the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics in Ohio. “History suggests that the Democrats will find it an uphill struggle to turn 435 local races into a national wave.”
The Democrats, whose leadership is bitterly divided between Howard Dean, the former presidential hopeful and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, and party leaders in Congress over electoral strategy, also face tough questions on their continuing inability to produce coherent policies. That is particularly difficult over Iraq and the economy.
On the unpopular war in Iraq, the Democrats continue to be divided on whether and how quickly to recommend a US military withdrawal. And on the economy, where there is broad-based voter anxiety, the Dem ocratic platform amounts to little more than proposing an increase in the minimum wage, stuck at $5.15 (€4.05, £2.74) an hour since 1997, and a reversal of some of the tax cuts Mr Bush has pushed through in the past six years.
The opinion poll gap has begun to narrow sharply. Last month Gallup showed the Democrats’ lead over Republicans narrowing to just two percentage points, down from a 15-point lead in April. Although voters remain deeply dissatisfied with the performance of a Republican Congress, their views change when it comes to assessing their local representative.
In what is a frequent peculiarity of American politics, more than half of voters approve of their local representative while fewer than a quarter approve of Congress’s performance as a whole.
“The bottom line is that there is still everything to play for,” said Mr Green. “The national mood favours the Democrats. But winning the election is still going to prove very tough for them.”
posted by Carlos T Mock @ 8:50 PM
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